Sea Level Rise Management Plan (SLRMP)

Sea level rise, caused by climate change, is increasing total ocean water levels over time.   As a coastal city, Nanaimo is at risk from rising sea levels and coastal flooding.  In 2018, the City completed a Sea Level Rise Study, which provided a high level overview of sea level rise risk areas.  The SLRMP will focus on the vulnerable areas identified in the 2018 study, improve the City's understanding of risks, and consider solutions.   

The Sea Level Rise Management Plan includes the following tasks:

Phase One (September, 2025 to July, 2026)

  1. Probabilistic Calculation - This accounts for the joint probability of multiple factors (e.g. storm surge, wind speed, king tide) occurring at the same time and impacting coastal flooding. This will help us understand the likelihood of an extreme event occurring.

  2. Inundation Modeling - 2D wave modeling to simulate wave effects along the shoreline. This will help us understand how wave conditions will impact coastal flooding.

  3. Refined Flood Construction Level Mapping -  A refined coastal flood impact map will be developed to update the previous maps completed in 2018. 

  4. Economic Risk Assessment - A report estimating the financial implication of rising sea levels to coastal infrastructure and properties. This will help us understand the economic risk to coastal areas and evaluate management options.

  5. Sea Level Rise Options Analysis - An identification of preferred sea level rise management options with community and stakeholder engagement. This will help us understand the best options to help protect us from coastal flooding.

Phase Two (February, 2026 to September, 2026)

  1. Coastal Erosion Monitoring and Management Strategy - Report and maps showing the extent of coastal erosion and strategies to minimize future erosion.  This will help us understand the rate of coastal erosion and how we can protect ourselves from its impacts.

  2. Communications Strategy - A strategy that provides recommendations on how the City can communicate the findings of the Sea Level Rise Management Plan to the public.  This will help the community better understand sea level rise impacts and how we can work together to manage them.

The project is funded by grants from the British Columbia Ministry of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness (EMCR) and the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM).

For more information regarding this project please contact Dave Stewart, Environmental Planner at sustainability@nanaimo.ca

Get Involved

Check out the Projects Get Involved Page to learn even more about the project and how you can participate.

https://www.getinvolvednanaimo.ca/sea-level-rise

Gallery

  • Progress

    The project includes the following key tasks and milestones

    Kay TasksExpected Completion Date
    Project Background Review and Engagement StrategyEnd of September, 2025
    Probabilistic Calculation of Sea Level RiseSeptember, 2025
    Inundation ModelingOctober, 2025
    Early Stakeholder EngagementDecember, 2025 - February, 2026
    Floodplain MappingJanuary, 2026
    Economic Risk AnalysisFebruary, 2026
    SLR Options Analysis + EngagementApril to June, 2026
    Phase One ReportingSummer 2026

    Phase Two (February 2026 to September 2026)

    Key Engagement Dates:

    Listening conversations:

    • Nanaimo Family Life Association (December 5, 2025), 
    • Snuneymuxw First Nation (December 8, 2025)
    • Connective (December 17, 2025)

     

    Technical Working Group (February 13, 2026)

    Snuneymuxw First Nation Meeting (TBD)

    Older Adults Meeting (February 19, 2026)

    Neighbourhood Association and Resident Workshop (February 24, 2026)

    Values Survey (February 16 to March 13, 2026)

    Options Survey (April and May, 2026)

    Options Evaluation Workshops (May, 2026)

     

  • Documents
  • Details
  • Background

    In 2019, the City of Nanaimo completed a Sea Level Rise Study which provided a high-level vulnerability assessment of the City's coastline. The Study includes sea level rise projections for 2050 and 2100; an assessment of potential coastal erosion impacts and defines a Flood Construction Level (FCL) along the City's shoreline for 2018 and 2100. Results from the Study show that there are low-lying areas along the coastline, which are vulnerable to sea level rise. The 2019 study was a 'strategic level assessment' and did not include 2D inundation modeling. The project team that completed the 2019 study recommended, further analysis be carried out in specific low-lying populated areas (Departure Bay, Protection Island and downtown areas) that will more accurately define inundation limits, as well as potential flooding.  In order to plan for and manage potential sea level rise in those vulnerable areas identified, a Sea Level Rise Management Plan (SLRMP) was recommended.  The scope of work proposed is based on recommendations included in the 2019 Sea Level Rise Study, which were carried forward into the City's 2020 Climate Change Resiliency Strategy and 2023 Integrated Action Plan.  The development of a SLRMP is included as a priority action within the Integrated Action Plan.  

     


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